2014년 10월 25일 토요일

First draft ( this is the very first draft)

 The 'transformer' movie is a 2007 American science fiction action film based on the transformer toy line. Interestingly, in film, there are many strange cars which can transform into robots. And the robots actually have the power to protect themselves meaning that they are semi-autonomy. They can think and do something like real humans. As robot technology have been developing, we, human, can not foresee the limits of the robots. Therefore, we can not sure whether the robots would develop like the 'transformer' robot. If robots had the AI(artificial intelligence), the shape of the world would be changed in many respects and people would say it is a AI revolution, following industrial revolution and information revolution. In terms of military, it would also lead to a revolution. However, whether military robot is really effective is must - have discussion. And I don't agree with the idea of military robot.
 
 Military robots date back to world war 2 and the Cold War in the form of the German Goliath tracked mines and the Soviet teletank. The U.S.Military is now investing heavily in research and development towards testing and deploying increasingly automated systems. The most prominent system currently in use is the unmanned aerail vehicle (IAI Pioneer& RQ-1 Predator) which can be armed with Air-to-ground missiles and remotely operated from a command center in reconnaissance roles. DARPA has hosted competitions in 2004 & 2005 to involve private companies and universities to develop unmanned ground vehicles to navigate through rough terrain in the Mojave Desert for a final prize of 2 Million. Not only U.S military but also other nations are now starting to research this field.
In the book called 'the harvard sampler' said that there is something robot cannot follow human. And I research about them too. According to science news, It talks about what robot can not follow human. Firstly, mimicking evolution in the physical manifestation is hard. What tends to happen is natural systems have lots of little joints, lots of little muscles which pull and tug and make the motion. And if you start introducing that many joints and that many motors in a synthetic thing, your cost goes up exponentially as complexity keeps growing. At the same time, the reliability goes down. If any single joint fails, your whole thing is going to fail. So that makes it very hard to mimic nature.
 On the brain side of things, it is also hard. A lot of us teach ourselves how to reason, how to think, how to analyze new information and make sense of it. This has been very difficult for robots to be able to do. So people will try to program different contexts and different scenarios for what a robot should do, but that way of doing it is simply not scalable. You don’t have enough time and manpower to code up all the possible scenarios that a robot would encounter and what it should be doing. People have made very small steps toward reasoning and learning, but in general robots do not yet know how to learn.
 And this asked me a question that nowadays, many nations have made lots of robot soldier for effectiveness. In this book, however, there is something robot can not follow human. And in terms of military, there are also many things military robots can not do. Not only this reason but also other reasons do disagree with the military robots
 
 Before arguments, I would define the robot and military robot. These are are from powerful dictionary company. And I would list them. According to Doosan dictionary, it says that robot is The machine that automatically process or work the given tasks by the itself retained ability. Also, according to the Oxford dictionary, it says that robot is a machine capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically, especially one programmable by a computer And, according to the Wikipedia, A robot is an automatic mechanical device often resembling a human or animal. According to a dictionary, it says the characteristics of robot. Firstly, robot should work or help out human. Secondly, work automatically Lastly, react itself to the surroundings.
 And there is few definitions of military robot. According to Wikipedia, military robots are autonomous robots or remote-controlled devices designed for military applications. Such systems are currently being researched by a number of military.
Until now, we have learned the definition, The issue on military robot is important because many nations now start to research this field and this would conclude our future war.However, there are also some doubts of using this. And I disagree to military robot too. There are three reasons ; lack of judgment, possibility to be insensitive to war for people and doubts about flexibility of it.
 Firstly, it lacks judgment compared to human soldiers. Even though robots developed, there is a question : Can computers and robots be truly trusted even though they are not humans? Actually, according to CBC News Broadcast Documentary team traveled all over various countries in the world, also entering the Pentagon, robotic production facilities and cutting-edge research laboratories (Mair 2011) While discovering the latest technology, they came up with a serious question that needed to be answered. This question was as follows; what are the new rules of engagement for robots that kill humans in wartime? This is a major disadvantage associated with military robots. If the future holds independent, acting robots acting on their own how would they be able to decide right from wrong? Would we hold a robot accountable for a death that shouldn’t have occurred or could we even conclude that? These are a few scenarios that one must consider as disadvantages for future military robotic use.
 Secondly, we could be insensitive to the war. According to P. W. Singer, he once interviewed a drone pilot. And he said that “What one Predator drone pilot described of his experience fighting in the Iraq war while never leaving Nevada: ‘You’re going to war for 12 hours, shooting weapons at targets, directing kills on enemy combatants. Then you get in the car and you drive home, and within 20 minutes you’re sitting at the dinner table talking to your kids about their homework.’” If soldiers are using the military robot instead of human continuously, they think war is just a game to play and become insensitive to it.
 Lastly, however they developed, there are limits that robot can not follow human : delicate physical manifestation and human brain. According to Satyandra Gupta from science news, even though they are developing, they lack of creativity and adaptation to changing situation. In war, similarly, there is many unsuspected variables. And it requires creativity and adaptation which robot does not have. In battlefield, therefore, military robot could be ineffective.
 
 Although many nations have made lots of military robots, it would just waste of money and time because they will never be as effective as the human soldiers. Some would argue that military robot would save many human soldiers. To be exact, it will save many human soldiers. However, the purpose of existence of soldiers is to defend its enemies. If two each nations fought only by military robots, it would unmeaningful war. And eventually innocent people would die. Isn't it paradoxical? In a result, it just saves human soldiers not citizens. Then where is the meaning of soldiers? On the other hand, some would argue that military robots are preceding human soldiers in terms of environmental, functional capability. I also absolutely agree with it. Sometimes, robots can do things human can not. However, it is different in war. Some silly people think that victory and defeat from war would be concluded by superior weapons. Of course, we must not ignore it. However, decisive factors of outcome of war are other things such as the times, general(human), flexibility( the most important thing). And there are many various examples from history. In addition, robots will have no flexibility however they develop. Therefore, these arguments are just short-sighted way of thinking.
 
 As I speak, many nations have made lots of military robots competitively. And this is very important issue because it will decide our future war. However, this process is a short - sighted. They don't think the effects of it. Even though they are developing, there will be many problems and lastly it could not precede human soldiers.The

Conclusion

Conclusion


As I speak, many nations have made lots of military robots competitively. And this is very important issue because it will decide our future war. However, this process is a short - sighted. They don't think the effects of it. Even though they are developing, there will be many problems and lastly it could not precede human soldiers.

Refutation and concession example

1. What is my thesis?
Although military robots are constantly evolving, they will never be as effective as the human soldiers.

2. What is the opposite position?
Military robots will be more effective than human soldiers3. What arguments can I anticipate?
 I can anticipate that they would argue the advantages of military robots I researched. Those are life saving and environmental, functional capability.
4. How will I counter those arguments?
a) Life saving -> it saves soldiers not citizens
b) environmental, functional capability -> flexibility is more important

Although many nations have made lots of military robots, it would just waste of money and time because they will never be as effective as the human soldiers. Some would argue that military robot would save many human soldiers. To be exact, it will save many human soldiers. However, the purpose of existence of soldiers is to defend its enemies. If two each nations fought only by military robots, it would unmeaningful war. And eventually innocent people would die. Isn't it paradoxical? In a result, it just saves human soldiers not citizens. Then where is the meaning of soldiers? On the other hand, some would argue that military robots are preceding human soldiers in terms of environmental, functional capability. I also absolutely agree with it. Sometimes, robots can do things human can not. However, it is different in war. Some silly people think that victory and defeat from war would be concluded by superior weapons. Of course, we must not ignore it. However, decisive factors of outcome of war are other things such as the times, general(human), flexibility( the most important thing). And there are many various examples from history. In addition, robots will have no flexibility however they develop. Therefore, these arguments are just short-sighted way of thinking.

The confirmation

1. What is my thesis?
Although military robots are constantly evolving, they will never be as effective as human soldiers
 
2. What types of source am I using to defend my thesis?
I am using expert opinions, a famous and relevant articles
 
3. Are my arguments mostly based on evidence, logic or emotion?
My arguments are most based on evidence from experts and journalists. There's no emotion appeal. But I don't think those would be useful.
 
Before arguments, I would define the robot and military robot. These are are from powerful dictionary company. And I would list them. According to Doosan dictionary, it says that robot is The machine that automatically process or work the given tasks by the itself retained ability. Also, according to the Oxford dictionary, it says that robot is a machine capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically, especially one programmable by a computer And, according to the Wikipedia, A robot is an automatic mechanical device often resembling a human or animal. According to a dictionary, it says the characteristics of robot. Firstly, robot should work or help out human. Secondly, work automatically Lastly, react itself to the surroundings.
And there is few definitions of military robot. According to Wikipedia, military robots are autonomous robots or remote-controlled devices designed for military applications. Such systems are currently being researched by a number of military.
Until now, we have learned the definition, The issue on military robot is important because many nations now start to research this field and this would conclude our future war.However, there are also some doubts of using this. And I disagree to military robot too. There are three reasons ; lack of judgment, possibility to be insensitive to war for people and doubts about flexibility of it.
Firstly, it lacks judgment compared to human soldiers. Even though robots developed, there is a question : Can computers and robots be truly trusted even though they are not humans? Actually, according to CBC News Broadcast Documentary team traveled all over various countries in the world, also entering the Pentagon, robotic production facilities and cutting-edge research laboratories (Mair 2011) While discovering the latest technology, they came up with a serious question that needed to be answered. This question was as follows; what are the new rules of engagement for robots that kill humans in wartime? This is a major disadvantage associated with military robots. If the future holds independent, acting robots acting on their own how would they be able to decide right from wrong? Would we hold a robot accountable for a death that shouldn’t have occurred or could we even conclude that? These are a few scenarios that one must consider as disadvantages for future military robotic use.
Secondly, we could be insensitive to the war. According to P. W. Singer, he once interviewed a drone pilot. And he said that “What one Predator drone pilot described of his experience fighting in the Iraq war while never leaving Nevada: ‘You’re going to war for 12 hours, shooting weapons at targets, directing kills on enemy combatants. Then you get in the car and you drive home, and within 20 minutes you’re sitting at the dinner table talking to your kids about their homework.’” If soldiers are using the military robot instead of human continuously, they think war is just a game to play and become insensitive to it.
Lastly, however they developed, there are limits that robot can not follow human : delicate physical manifestation and human brain. According to Satyandra Gupta from science news, even though they are developing, they lack of creativity and adaptation to changing situation. In war, similarly, there is many unsuspected variables. And it requires creativity and adaptation which robot does not have. In battlefield, therefore, military robot could be ineffective.

 









2014년 10월 24일 금요일

Fifth Research

My topic
: Human soldiers are more effective than military robots.
What I want to learn from this source
: Disadvantages of military robots
Sources
https://sites.google.com/a/cortland.edu/military-robots/home
http://www.armyofrobots.com/effects-and-impact-of-military.html
http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Horizons/2010/0218/The-pros-and-cons-of-a-robot-army
Notes
*Disadvantages of military robot
 Every product on the market today has its benefits, but also has its downsides. Some of these downsides are minor while others can influence the way people feel about a certain situation. The use of military robotics has its peaks with saving lives, but what happens when technology is so rapidly changing that more and more types of robots are being created. For example, in years to come there will be all different types of new military production. Whenever a robot is shut down or shot down, a new one is simply created in its spot ("Military robots," 2011). Robots will no longer be controlled by humans and human armies will be no longer as significant. This is of course an opinion, but does not stretch too far from what may appear a century later. In 2009, academics and technical professionals met and held a conference together to talk about the possibility of robots being able to become self – sustained ("Military robots," 2011).  In other words, these professionals were worried about military robots being able to make choices on their own without human influence. This possibility has led to a lot of questioning in the field of robotics, not just in the military alone. Can computers and robots be truly trusted even though they are not humans? They also bring forward a chance to which they might be able to attain any scale of autonomy ("Military robots," 2011). To what extent they could utilize such abilities to possibly cause any threat or danger is still up for discussion ("Military robots," 2011). According to CBC News Broadcasted Documentary, Remote Control War, autonomous robots are no longer science fiction anymore (Mair 2011). The broadcast team traveled all over various countries in the world, also entering the Pentagon, robotic production facilities and cutting-edge research laboratories (Mair 2011) While discovering the latest technology, they came up with a serious question that needed to be answered. This question was as follows; what are the new rules of engagement for robots that kill humans in wartime? This is a major disadvantage associated with military robots. If the future holds independent, acting robots acting on their own how would they be able to decide right from wrong? Would we hold a robot accountable for a death that shouldn’t have occurred or could we even conclude that? These are a few scenarios that one must consider as disadvantages for future military robotic use. Another disadvantage of military robots would be the cost of creating them. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, Military Funding has increased from $316 billion in 2001 to $671 billion in 2010 (Shah, 2011). The U.S. defense percentages show more than half of all spending; others include health, education, which accommodate for only an eighth of that percentage (Shah, 2011). A lot of this money is coming out of the income taxes that are collected by the government from its citizens. In the end these numbers show the greater picture of U.S. military spending with military robots being at the top of the funding list.

But one should not forget about the certain effects and impact of military robots.
When we consider the effects and impact of military robots, we can say that these involves certain potential risks. In 2009, academics & technical professionals held a conference and discussed the impact of the speculative possibility that robots and computers could become self- sustaining and able to make their own decisions. They also bring forward the possibility and the range to which computers & robots might be able to achieve any scale of autonomy, and to what extent they could utilize such abilities to possibly cause any threat or danger. They briefly discuss about the effects of military robots.
Experts have also jotted that some robots have acquired several forms of semi-autonomy, which includes the ability to find power sources on their own and the ability to select target to attack independently. They also noted that some computer viruses can avoid elimination. Besides this, they also considered self-awareness as depicted in science-fiction is probably unlikely, but that there were other potential hazards and pitfalls. Some experts and academics have questioned the use of robots for military combat, especially when such robots are given some degree of autonomous functions. The above information on effects and impact of military robots will help you more about these robots and their effects.

The question of whether to deploy on the battlefield armed robots that would make their own decisions has raised many ethical questions, among them:
  • Will robot fighters be able to distinguishing between enemy troops and innocent civilians? Must robot fighters do this perfectly or is it enough if they merely make good decisions more often than human soldiers?
  • Can programmers imagine every situation that robots will encounter on the battlefield? If not, robots could make lethal mistakes when first deployed.
  • Might robots be “hacked” by the enemy and turned against friendly troops? If robots contained a remote “kill switch” to shut them down in case that happened, might that be hacked by the enemy to disable them?
  • What if rogue friendly soldiers override a robot’s safety and ethical programs and use it to take some action against the rules of war?
  • If robots break the rules of war, who takes responsibility? The manufacturer? The programmer? The nearest human commander?
  • If robots gather information on the conduct of human troops using video or other sensors, might soldiers feel they are being “spied on” and resent the robots, thus harming morale?
  • If robots reduce casualties for an aggressor, might they make war more likely, especially against a technologically inferior opponent?

Final thoughts
:Generally, the two big reasons are lack of judgement and cost of creating them.





The narration


My persuasive argument thesis is: Human soldier is more effective than military robot.

1. What do people already know about my topic?
people already know that the technology of robots have developed and we can't foresee the limits of it. If AI developed, the world would be dramatically changed. And in military, it would also lead to a revolution.

2. What research has already been done about my topic?
And many dictionary from naver, wikipedia, oxford university.
3. What are the implications of my argument (What if I'm right? What if I'm right and people ignore me?)
 even though AI develops and applies to military, military robots can not occupy the terrain of human soldiers. And the country using military robots will be lose strategically. If people ignore me and use military robot in principle, they will just cost time, money and emotions.

 Military robots date back to world war 2 and the Cold War in the form of the German Goliath tracked mines and the Soviet teletank. The U.S.Military is now investing heavily in research and development towards testing and deploying increasingly automated systems. The most prominent system currently in use is the unmanned aerail vehicle (IAI Pioneer& RQ-1 Predator) which can be armed with Air-to-ground missiles and remotely operated from a command center in reconnaissance roles. DARPA has hosted competitions in 2004 & 2005 to involve private companies and universities to develop unmanned ground vehicles to navigate through rough terrain in the Mojave Desert for a final prize of 2 Million. Not only U.S military but also other nations are now starting to research this field.
 In the book called 'the harvard sampler' said that there is something robot cannot follow human. And I research about them too. According to science news, It talks about what robot can not follow human.  Firstly, mimicking evolution in the physical manifestation is hard. What tends to happen is natural systems have lots of little joints, lots of little muscles which pull and tug and make the motion. And if you start introducing that many joints and that many motors in a synthetic thing, your cost goes up exponentially as complexity keeps growing. At the same time, the reliability goes down. If any single joint fails, your whole thing is going to fail. So that makes it very hard to mimic nature.
 On the brain side of things, it is also hard. A lot of us teach ourselves how to reason, how to think, how to analyze new information and make sense of it. This has been very difficult for robots to be able to do. So people will try to program different contexts and different scenarios for what a robot should do, but that way of doing it is simply not scalable. You don’t have enough time and manpower to code up all the possible scenarios that a robot would encounter and what it should be doing. People have made very small steps toward reasoning and learning, but in general robots do not yet know how to learn.
 And this asked me a question that nowadays, many nations have made lots of robot soldier for effectiveness. In this book, however, there is something robot can not follow human. And in terms of military, there are also many things military robots can not do. Not only this reason but also other reasons do disagree with the military robots